Application of Forecast Techniques at Arifco Plastic Factory – Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Problem Statement  

Forecasting methods being used in Arifco’s have some room for improvements. i would like to reduce between the actual demand and the forecasted one.

 

Aims and Objectives Aims:

  • To determine the best model(s) of forecasting that best fits the plastic production at Arifco in order to increase revenues and reduce unnecessary losses.

 

Objectives:

  • Using their sales data of the past five years 2010-20114 (monthly basis)
  • Plotting the data to find which model fit best
  • Comparing different forecasting model(s)with their existing forecast model
  • Finding out the best techniques to use in demand planning for the designated products.

 

Importance Enhance the forecast technique at Arifco, in order to avoid shortage/surplus in stocks. Also, to avoid opportunity costs that might be incurred due to not meeting the clients orders while also it should help maintaining the proper inventory level (i.e. no more than the desired level) ,thus, reducing the cost associated with it.
Scope The research will focus on Arifco plastic product. We will start by defining the segment or products that examine the forecasting techniques used in demand planning at Arifco and compare the results with other techniques in order to determine the best methodology in forecasting the demand of plastic.

 

Methodology
  • Quantitative Qualitative methodology
  • Primary data:
    • Interviews
    • Existing customer sales data for the past five years 2010-2014
  • Secondary data:
    • Literature review

 

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